A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
